market health dashboard — korean gal on FIRE

WHAT’S HAPPENING: WEEKLY CATALYSTS

A real-time overview of market direction and underlying participation. This section highlights index performance, risk appetite, and market breadth signals that help us understand the broader environment at a glance.

MARKET OVERVIEW

Cross-Asset Market Snapshot

Equity Put / Call Ratio (PCR)

  Why track this?

   • The Put/Call Ratio compares bearish hedging (puts) vs bullish bets (calls).

    • High PCR = fear or heavy hedging → often appears near market lows.

    • Low PCR = optimism or complacency → markets more vulnerable to pullbacks.

    • Useful for spotting emotional extremes in sentiment.

    • Works best as a contrarian context indicator alongside VIX & breadth.

SPY with Advance-Decline Line

  Why track this?

  • SPY shows price, but not how many stocks are participating in the move

  • The Advance/Decline Line reveals the market’s internal strength

  • Rising AD Line = broad participation → healthier, sustainable trends

  • Falling AD Line = fewer stocks leading → fragile or weakening structure

  • When SPY makes new highs but AD Line lags, it's a warning of narrowing breadth

  • When both trend higher together, it confirms strong, high-quality rallies

  • SPY + AD Line together show whether the market’s foundation is strengthening or eroding beneath the surface

RSP with Advance-Decline Line

  Why track this?

    • RSP shows how the average stock is performing, not just the megacaps

    • The Advance/Decline Line shows how many stocks are rising vs falling

    • Rising RSP + rising AD Line = broad, healthy participation

    • Rising RSP but falling AD Line = early warning of internal weakness

    • Falling RSP + falling AD Line = broad selling pressure across the index

    • SPY can rise on a handful of large names, but RSP + AD Line reveals the truth

    • Used together, they show whether market strength is supported by the majority of stocks or resting on narrow leadership

Markets respond to more than price alone—macro sets the tone. Interest rates, the dollar, and volatility help show the underlying environment, while the weekly economic calendar and high-impact releases like CPI, NFP, and Fed meetings act as catalysts. Watching these together gives a full picture of both the environment and the triggers that drive short-term and long-term trends.

MACRO LANDSCAPE

U.S. 10-Year Treasury

  Why track this?

  • The 10-year Treasury is the benchmark rate for mortgages, corporate borrowing, and equity valuations.

  • Rising yields tighten financial conditions → lower equity multiples and slower economic activity.

  • Falling yields ease conditions → support risk assets and increase liquidity.

  • The 10-year reflects market expectations for inflation, growth, and Federal Reserve policy beyond the next few months.

  • Critical for identifying inflation trends, macro regime shifts, and forward-looking market sentiment.

U.S. Dollar + High Yield Junk Bonds

  Why track this?

  • DXY tracks global liquidity and risk appetite
  
  • Rising DXY = risk-off pressure on SPY/QQQ/BTC
  
  • Falling DXY = risk-on tailwind, boosts tech & crypto

  • Strong USD often signals tightening or global stress

  • HYG = high-yield (junk) corporate bonds

  • Rising HYG = improving credit conditions, risk-on

  • Falling HYG = credit stress; often leads equity weakness

  • HYG + DXY together reveal the true macro regime

  • Strong USD + Weak HYG = the clearest risk-off warning

U.S. 2-Year Treasury

  Why track this?

  • Best real-time read on Fed expectations
  
  • Rising 2Y = fewer cuts or possible hikes → tighter liquidity
  
  • Falling 2Y = easing expectations → bullish for tech & growth

  • Leads equities during turning points
  
  • Sharp drops often precede equity bottoms

CBOE Volatility Index

  Why track this?

  • Real-time fear and hedging demand measure
  
  • Rising VIX = choppy price action, higher downside risk
  
  • Falling VIX = stable trend regime, signals risk-on
  
  • Spikes above 20 often precede pullbacks
  
  • Sustained low VIX supports smooth uptrends

LIQUIDITY

Liquidity reflects the amount of financial capacity and funding available in the system. Monitoring the Fed balance sheet, RRP balances, and broad money supply helps reveal whether underlying conditions are supportive, neutral, or tightening. This section provides context for how macro liquidity may influence market direction.

Fed Balance Sheet (Total Assets)

  Why track this?

  Why track the Fed Balance Sheet (Total Assets)?

  • The balance sheet reveals how much liquidity the Fed is injecting or removing

  • Expanding assets = quantitative easing (QE) → easier financial conditions

  • Shrinking assets = quantitative tightening (QT) → liquidity drain and tighter markets

  • A rising balance sheet often supports risk assets (SPY, QQQ, BTC)

  • A falling balance sheet increases macro headwinds and can cap rallies

  • Sudden changes in balance sheet trends often precede major shifts in equities

  • Helps interpret why markets rise or fall even when economic data is mixed

Reverse Repo Facility (RRP) Balance

  Why track this?

  Why track the Reverse Repo Facility (RRP) balance?

  • RRP shows how much excess cash the financial system is parking at the Fed

  • Falling RRP = liquidity returning to markets (bullish for risk assets)

  • Rising RRP = liquidity being absorbed by the Fed (bearish backdrop)

  • Sharp drops in RRP often coincide with stronger equity rallies

  • Rising RRP can signal tightening financial conditions even if rates stay stable

  • Helps explain why markets rise or fall independent of economic data

  • Acts as a leading gauge for shifts in risk appetite and liquidity availability

Treasury General Account Money Supply

  Why track this?

  Why track the Treasury General Account (TGA)?

  • TGA is the U.S. Treasury’s cash balance at the Federal Reserve

  • Falling TGA = Treasury spending → liquidity injected into markets (bullish)

  • Rising TGA = Treasury rebuilding cash → liquidity drained from markets (bearish)

  • TGA explains liquidity shifts that Balance Sheet, RRP, or M2 won’t show alone

  • Major equity rallies often follow periods of TGA drawdowns

  • Rising TGA can weaken risk assets even when macro data looks stable

  • Essential for understanding short-term liquidity cycles that drive SPY, QQQ, BTC

  • The cleanest real-time indicator of Treasury-driven liquidity flows

M2 Money Supply

  Why track this?

  Why track M2 Money Supply?

  • M2 reflects the total amount of money circulating in the economy

  • Expanding M2 = easier liquidity conditions and long-term support for asset prices

  • Contracting M2 = liquidity withdrawal, often associated with difficult market regimes

  • Major bull markets often begin after periods of strong M2 growth

  • The 2022 bear market coincided with the first YoY decline in M2 in decades

  • M2 moves slowly, but helps identify the broader liquidity cycle

  • Provides essential context for interpreting rates, credit, USD strength, and risk trends

SENTIMENT

Sentiment measures how consumers, businesses, and investors perceive economic conditions and future risk. These indicators often shift before traditional data, offering early insight into confidence levels, spending behavior, and market participation. This section helps interpret the psychological forces shaping market trends.

UMich Consumer Sentiment

  Why track this?

  • UMich Sentiment measures how confident consumers feel about the economy

  • Shifts in mood drive real spending → 70% of U.S. GDP

  • Falling sentiment often precedes pullbacks in retail sales

  • Rising sentiment supports earnings, risk-on behavior, and market breadth

  • Extremely low sentiment historically marks major market bottoms

See additional data here.

AAII Investor Sentiment Survey (Retail, Bullish %)

  Why track this?

  • AAII tracks weekly sentiment from individual investors

  • High bullish readings → euphoria, risk of near-term pullbacks

  • Low bullish readings → fear, historically strong buying opportunities

  • Works best at extremes, not as a timing tool by itself

  • Useful cross-check against VIX, breadth, and macro signals

Retail Sales

  Why track this?

  • Retail Sales is the clearest measure of real consumer spending

  • Tracks 70% of U.S. GDP → directly tied to economic growth

  • Rising retail sales = strong demand, supportive for earnings

  • Weakening retail sales = early warning of slowdown or recession

  • Reacts before labor data, making it a leading cycle indicator

Initial Jobless Claims

  Why track this?

  • Jobless claims are the fastest real-time read on the labor market

  • Rising claims = slowdown risk, often before recession headlines

  • Falling/stable claims = strong labor market, supports consumption

  • Markets react sharply when claims break trend

  • One of the most reliable early-cycle warning indicators

CRYPTO HIGHLIGHTS

Crypto Highlights track the key forces driving crypto market behavior: liquidity (stablecoin positioning), internal risk appetite (BTC dominance), and network strength (hash rate). Together, they reveal whether capital is flowing into or out of crypto and how healthy the ecosystem is beneath the surface.

USDT Dominance

  Why track this?

  • USDT.D shows how much of crypto market cap is sitting in stablecoins

  • Rising USDT.D = investors de-risking, moving to cash → risk-off in crypto

  • Falling USDT.D = stablecoins rotating into BTC/ETH/alts → risk-on

  • Sharp spikes in USDT.D often precede crypto corrections or liquidations

  • Sustained downtrend in USDT.D is a key confirmation of a bull market

  • Useful for timing rotations between BTC → ETH → alts

Bitcoin Hash Rate

  Why track this?

  • Hash rate reflects the total computational security of the Bitcoin network

  • Rising hash rate = miners investing more capital → confidence in future BTC price

  • Declining hash rate can signal miner stress, margin compression, or forced selling

  • Hash rate trends often lead miner revenue cycles and can front-run miner capitulation

  • Miner capitulation events (hash rate drops) historically mark late-stage bottoms

  • Strong, steadily rising hash rate supports the structural bull market thesis

Bitcoin Dominance

  Why track this?

  • USDT.D shows how much of crypto market cap is sitting in stablecoins

  • Rising USDT.D = investors de-risking, moving to cash → risk-off in crypto

  • Falling USDT.D = stablecoins rotating into BTC/ETH/alts → risk-on

  • Sharp spikes in USDT.D often precede crypto corrections or liquidations

  • Sustained downtrend in USDT.D is a key confirmation of a bull market

  • Useful for timing rotations between BTC → ETH → alts

Ethereum / Bitcoin Dominance

  Why track this?

  • ETH/BTC shows whether Ethereum is outperforming or underperforming Bitcoin

  • Rising ETH/BTC = risk appetite increasing within crypto → capital rotating out of BTC into ETH

  • Falling ETH/BTC = defensive positioning → capital concentrating back into BTC

  • ETH/BTC typically leads major altcoin cycles; sustained strength often precedes broad alt rallies

  • Major ETH/BTC breakouts tend to occur mid-bull, not at the start or end

  • Prolonged ETH/BTC weakness is common during risk-off periods or BTC-led moves

  • Helps time rotations: BTC → ETH → alts

  • Confirms whether ETH-based moves are structural or just short-term noise

  • A key filter for avoiding premature alt exposure